A friend of mine polled some of her friends last week to comment on the statement: "If you don't write applications for iPhone, then you might as well count your business obsolete". My response;
Having completed a couple of projects in the social media space recently, I detect a trend very much in favour of Apple. Remember that big ad/new media agencies are the key influencers of big brands, and they're all advising/pushing iPhone. I know of one global brand who's core revenue comes from business users (with Blackberries), and they're doing iPhone first. It can't be beaten as a truly useful mobile internet experience.
The social trend in the mobile space cannot be underestimated, particularly iPhone's support for current favourites; Twitter, Facebook, MySpace. Mobile users are three times more populous than internet users (3.3bn versus 1.3bn), iPhone's potential is considerable because of the enriching experience it offers - it's also perceived as very cool, a fact that cannot be ignored in a world of consumerism and the effectiveness of the manufacture of desire. There's been a low intensity 'meme' knocking around for a few years now that goes something like this;
Why can't big business give their employees applications and devices that enrich their experience rather than dull, clunky applications - 2 years ago at Aviva they were still using green screen mainframe technology to book rooms. This can't go on, and Generation Y talent entering the workforce are far more likley to work for companies that offer digital/application experiences they're used to. There is a great deal of evidence to support this.
Probably all the current apps for the iPhone have 'been done' on Symbian. Apple just makes it easier. It is I think that simple. A VC fund has just been launched - $100m to fund iPhone applications. There are a lot of money men who want to be associated with iPhone's success. My guess is this doesn't happen often in the Blackberry world.
Your point about iPhone-style web phones being an unavoidable force reshaping the technology landscape is spot-on.
I do not think Apple will ever have the market sewn up to the degree they have with MP3 players.
This article shows a different perspective on the mindshare issue: Interest in iPhone versus non-iPhone platforms by 3rd party software developers. It appears that Google's unreleased Android platform has a hefty amount of its own momentum.
Granted, number of end users is more important than number of interested developers, but it is still an interesting bellwether.
http://radar.oreilly.com/2008/07/interest-in-the-iphone-android.html
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